I looked at some recent polls on climate change issues and it seems that among people there is a consensus that it is a problem. So why is this a hotly debated political issue instead of a problem we just have to work on? Well even though we largely agree there is a problem, we seem to disagree about how urgent it is and how to solve it. Political arguments complicate the discussion as the loudest voices divide us into extreme positions.
I have my opinions, but will admit that I probably have more questions than easy answers. For the sake of this article, I will work from them the extreme position that we are doomed if we don’t take extreme measures over the next decade. From a U.N. Report:
Just over a decade is all that remains to stop irreversible damage from climate change, world leaders heard today as the General Assembly opened a high‑level meeting on the relationship between the phenomenon and sustainable development.
My first question is how is a solution in ten years even possible? Wind and solar power are increasing rapidly but are still a small portion of power generation. Subsidies are slowly getting people to switch to electric cars, but, of course, they are being charged mainly with coal or natural gas generated electricity.
Much of the problem is in less developed countries like China and India which are building many new coal-powered power plants. We can urge them to stop, but how can we tell them that they need to forgo the high standard of living they strive for? Every day on TV they see Americans driving giant pickup trucks and SUVs, living in houses that could house five Indian families. Do they not have the right to strive for that?
The answer that our leaders seem to have is that they will make the changes through a command regime. You must drive an EV. Coal and natural gas plants must shut down. Many of the dictates do not consider what is actually possible or even solve the problem in the real world. I don’t think that will work. Talking of the polls I mentioned earlier, I have read somewhere people change their answers on poll questions if they are told of additional taxes or things they will have to give up. And of course, we don’t have control over what Chinese and Indian leaders will do.
If we are really facing disaster, we need leaders who will honestly stand before us and tell us what we must give up and convince us why it is worth it. No more giant pickup trucks and SUVs. Smaller houses, smaller vehicles (or bicycles/public transportation), less food selection, less travel. This would take true leadership, something we are lacking. I think back to Franklin Roosevelt convincing Americans to enter the Second World War – we were a very isolationist country then.
Another approach is to concede that we cannot meet the short timelines that many are urging and take a practical approach that will take longer but actually achieve our objectives. I am not an expert, but I am thinking that over the next decade, in addition to wind and solar power, we focus on natural gas which is plentiful, especially with fracking technology, and emits less carbon dioxide than coal. And nuclear power. If we were really serious about this we would need to lower our living standards.
I think we can only be successful if we build a consensus on what the problem is, what we have to do to solve it, and what we will give up solving it. If some government bureaucrat tells me I can no longer cook on my gas stove, I, like most Americans will react against arbitrary authority. If someone comes and demonstrates an induction range, (which I have never used or even seen), she might be able to convince me.